Aside: More Missingness Examples

This notebook serves to provide more examples of how to identify missingness mechanisms through data.

import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
import os

import plotly.express as px
import plotly.figure_factory as ff
pd.options.plotting.backend = 'plotly'

from scipy.stats import ks_2samp

# Used for plotting examples.
def create_kde_plotly(df, group_col, group1, group2, vals_col, title=''):
    fig = ff.create_distplot(
        hist_data=[df.loc[df[group_col] == group1, vals_col], df.loc[df[group_col] == group2, vals_col]],
        group_labels=[group1, group2],
        show_rug=False, show_hist=False,
        colors=['#ef553b', '#636efb'],
    )
    return fig.update_layout(title=title)

Example: Cars 🚗

Example: Cars

• We have data on cars that were given tickets.
• For each car, we have their 'vin' number, 'car_make', 'car_year', and 'car_color'.
• Question: Is 'car_color' missing at random, dependent on 'car_year'?
  • Is the distribution of 'car_year' similar when color is missing vs. not missing?
  • How similar is similar enough?

Let's use a permutation test!

cars = pd.read_csv(os.path.join('data', 'cars.csv'))
cars.head()

	vin	car_make	car_year	car_color
0	3D7TT2CT8BG121773	Audi	2008.0	Teal
1	SCBZB25E62C073475	Audi	1996.0	Mauv
2	1FT7W2A69EE682086	NaN	NaN	Turquoise
3	1B3AZ6JZ7AV582128	Ford	2010.0	Goldenrod
4	1GYUCGEF4AR632425	Mazda	1996.0	Purple

# Proportion of car colors missing.
cars['car_color'].isna().mean()

0.1542

cars['color_missing'] = cars['car_color'].isna()

cars.head()

	vin	car_make	car_year	car_color	color_missing
0	3D7TT2CT8BG121773	Audi	2008.0	Teal	False
1	SCBZB25E62C073475	Audi	1996.0	Mauv	False
2	1FT7W2A69EE682086	NaN	NaN	Turquoise	False
3	1B3AZ6JZ7AV582128	Ford	2010.0	Goldenrod	False
4	1GYUCGEF4AR632425	Mazda	1996.0	Purple	False

(
    cars
    .pivot_table(index='car_year', columns='color_missing', values=None, aggfunc='size')
    .fillna(0)
    .apply(lambda x: x / x.sum())
    .plot(title='Distribution of Car Years by Missingness of Color')
)

• These distributions look pretty similar. We won't run the permutation test here, but if we did, we'd fail to reject the null. It doesn't seem like the missingness of 'car_color' depends on 'car_year'.
• To figure out if the missingness of 'car_color' is MCAR, we'd need to do a similar analysis for all other columns.

Missingness of 'car_color' on 'car_make'

Let's test whether the missingness of 'car_color' is dependent on 'car_make'.

cars.head()

	vin	car_make	car_year	car_color	color_missing
0	3D7TT2CT8BG121773	Audi	2008.0	Teal	False
1	SCBZB25E62C073475	Audi	1996.0	Mauv	False
2	1FT7W2A69EE682086	NaN	NaN	Turquoise	False
3	1B3AZ6JZ7AV582128	Ford	2010.0	Goldenrod	False
4	1GYUCGEF4AR632425	Mazda	1996.0	Purple	False

emp_distributions = (
    cars
    .pivot_table(index='car_make', columns='color_missing', values=None, aggfunc='size')
    .fillna(0)
    .apply(lambda x: x / x.sum())
)

# There are too many makes to plot them all at once! Instead, we'll take the top 20.
emp_distributions.iloc[:20].plot(kind='barh', title='Distribution of Makes by Missingness of Color', 
                                 barmode='group')

observed_tvd = emp_distributions.diff(axis=1).iloc[:, -1].abs().sum() / 2
observed_tvd

0.10371381974098398

shuffled = cars.copy()[['car_make', 'color_missing']]

n_repetitions = 500
tvds = []

for _ in range(n_repetitions):
    
    shuffled['car_make'] = np.random.permutation(shuffled['car_make'])
    
    pivoted = (
        shuffled
        .pivot_table(index='car_make', columns='color_missing', values=None, aggfunc='size')
        .fillna(0)
        .apply(lambda x: x / x.sum())
    )
    
    tvd = pivoted.diff(axis=1).iloc[:, -1].abs().sum() / 2
    tvds.append(tvd)

fig = px.histogram(pd.DataFrame(tvds), x=0, nbins=50, histnorm='probability', 
                   title='Empirical Distribution of the TVD')
fig.add_vline(x=observed_tvd, line_color='red')
fig.add_annotation(text=f'<span style="color:red">Observed TVD = {round(observed_tvd, 2)}</span>',
                   x=1.08 * observed_tvd, showarrow=False, y=0.1)
fig.update_layout(yaxis_range=[0, 0.15])

np.mean(np.array(tvds) >= observed_tvd)

0.672

Here, we fail to reject the null that the distribution of 'car_make' is the same whether or not 'car_color' is missing.

Example: Payments 💰

Example: Assessing missingness in payments data

• We have payment information for purchases: credit card type, credit card number, date of birth.
• Is the credit card number missing at random dependent on the type of card?

payments = pd.read_csv(os.path.join('data', 'payment.csv'))
payments['cc_isnull'] = payments['credit_card_number'].isna()

payments.head()

	id	credit_card_type	credit_card_number	date_of_birth	cc_isnull
0	1	diners-club-enroute	2.018706e+14	25-Sep-1982	False
1	2	americanexpress	3.737511e+14	08-Jan-1946	False
2	3	jcb	3.570296e+15	NaN	False
3	4	mastercard	5.318327e+15	NaN	False
4	5	maestro	6.759827e+17	20-Apr-1975	False

emp_distributions = (
    payments
    .pivot_table(columns='cc_isnull', index='credit_card_type', aggfunc='size')
    .fillna(0)
    .apply(lambda x:x / x.sum())
)

emp_distributions.plot(kind='barh', title='Distribution of Card Types', barmode='group')

observed_tvd = emp_distributions.diff(axis=1).iloc[:, -1].abs().sum() / 2
observed_tvd

0.08546365914786964

shuffled = payments.copy()[['credit_card_type', 'cc_isnull']]

n_repetitions = 500
tvds = []

for _ in range(n_repetitions):
    
    shuffled['credit_card_type'] = np.random.permutation(shuffled['credit_card_type'])
    
    pivoted = (
        shuffled
        .pivot_table(index='credit_card_type', columns='cc_isnull', values=None, aggfunc='size')
        .fillna(0)
        .apply(lambda x: x / x.sum())
    )
    
    tvd = pivoted.diff(axis=1).iloc[:, -1].abs().sum() / 2
    tvds.append(tvd)

Assessing missingness in payments data

• Is the credit card number missing at random dependent on the type of card?
• As always, set significance level beforehand:
  • How important is the column in the modeling process?
  • How many null values are there?
• Consideration: how important is a faithful imputation?

fig = px.histogram(pd.DataFrame(tvds), x=0, nbins=50, histnorm='probability', 
                   title='Empirical Distribution of the TVD')
fig.add_vline(x=observed_tvd, line_color='red')
fig.add_annotation(text=f'<span style="color:red">Observed TVD = {round(observed_tvd, 2)}</span>',
                   x=0.06, showarrow=False, y=0.08)
fig.update_layout(xaxis_range=[0, 0.25])

# Same as np.mean(np.array(tvds) >= observed_tvd).
np.count_nonzero(np.array(tvds) >= observed_tvd) / len(tvds)

0.942

Assessing missingness in payments data

• Is the credit card number missing at random dependent on the age of shopper?
• For quantitative distributions, we've compared means of two groups.

payments['date_of_birth'] = pd.to_datetime(payments['date_of_birth'])
payments['age'] = (2023 - payments.date_of_birth.dt.year)

Note that the age column itself has missing values.

create_kde_plotly(payments[['cc_isnull', 'age']].dropna(), 'cc_isnull', True, False, 'age')

ks_2samp(
    payments.groupby('cc_isnull')['age'].get_group(True),
    payments.groupby('cc_isnull')['age'].get_group(False)
)

KstestResult(statistic=0.12699202780883062, pvalue=0.03445181524401586)